On-X aortic valve replacement patients treated with low dose warfarin and low dose aspirin.

OBJECTIVES: To assess if warfarin targeted to INR 1.8 (range 1.5-2.0) is safe for all patients with an On-X aortic mechanical valve. METHODS: This prospective, observational registry follows patients receiving warfarin targeted at an INR of 1.8 (range 1.5-2.0) plus daily aspirin (75-100 mg) after On-X aortic valve replacement. The primary end-point is a composite of thromboembolism, valve thrombosis, and major bleeding. Secondary end-points include the individual rates of thromboembolism, valve thrombosis, and major bleeding, as well as the composite in subgroups of home or clinic-monitored INR and risk categorization for thromboembolism. The control was the patient group randomized to standard-dose warfarin (INR 2.0-3.0) plus daily aspirin 81 mg from the PROACT trial. RESULTS: A total of 510 patients were enrolled at 23 centers in the UK, United States, and Canada. Currently, the median follow-up duration is 3.4 years, and median achieved INR is 1.9. The primary composite end-point rate in the low INR patients is 2.31% vs 5.39% (95% confidence interval 4.12%-6.93%) per patient-year in the PROACT control group, constituting a 57% reduction. Results are consistent in subgroups of home or clinic-monitored, and high-risk patients, with reductions of 56%, 57%, and 57%, respectively. Major and total bleeding are decreased by 85% and 73%, respectively, with similar rates of thromboembolic events. No valve thrombosis occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Interim results suggest that warfarin targeted at an INR of 1.8 (range 1.5-2.0) plus aspirin is safe and effective in patients with an On-X aortic mechanical valve with or without home INR monitoring.

Low-Dose Warfarin with a Novel Mechanical Aortic Valve: Interim Registry Results at 5-Year Follow-Up.

OBJECTIVE(S): To evaluate whether warfarin targeted at an international normalized ratio of 1.8 (range 1.5-2.0) following On-X mechanical aortic valve implant is safe for all patients. METHODS: This prospective, observational clinical registry assessed adverse event rates in adult patients receiving low-dose warfarin (target international normalized ratio 1.8, range 1.5-2.0) plus daily aspirin (75-100 milligrams) during a 5-year period following On-X aortic valve implant. The primary endpoint is the combined rate of major bleeding, valve thrombosis, and thromboembolism overall and in 4 subgroups. The comparator is the Prospective Randomized On-X Anticoagulation Trial control group patients on standard-dose warfarin (international normalized ratio 2.0-3.0) plus aspirin 81 milligrams daily. RESULTS: A total of 510 patients were recruited at 23 centers in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada between November 2015 and January 2022. This interim analysis includes 229 patients scheduled to complete 5-year follow-up by August 16, 2023. The linearized occurrence rate (in percent per patient-year) of the primary composite endpoint of major bleeding, valve thrombosis, and thromboembolism is 1.83% compared with 5.39% (95% confidence interval 4.12%-6.93%) in the comparator group. Results are consistent in clinic-monitored and home-monitored patients and in those at high risk for thromboembolism. Major bleeding and total bleeding were reduced by 87% and 71%, respectively, versus the comparator group, without an increase in thromboembolic events. CONCLUSIONS: Interim results support the continued safety of the On-X aortic mechanical valve with a target international normalized ratio of 1.8 plus low-dose aspirin through 5 years post-implant, with or without home monitoring.

The SUPER reporting guideline suggested for reporting of surgical technique.

Background: Existing reporting guidelines pay insufficient attention to the detail and comprehensiveness reporting of surgical technique. The Surgical techniqUe rePorting chEcklist and standaRds (SUPER) aims to address this gap by defining reporting standards for surgical technique. The SUPER guideline intends to apply to articles that encompass surgical technique in any study design, surgical discipline, and stage of surgical innovation. Methods: Following the EQUATOR (Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research) Network approach, 16 surgeons, journal editors, and methodologists reviewed existing reporting guidelines relating to surgical technique, reviewed papers from 15 top journals, and brainstormed to draft initial items for the SUPER. The initial items were revised through a three-round Delphi survey from 21 multidisciplinary Delphi panel experts from 13 countries and regions. The final SUPER items were formed after an online consensus meeting to resolve disagreements and a three-round wording refinement by all 16 SUPER working group members and five SUPER consultants. Results: The SUPER reporting guideline includes 22 items that are considered essential for good and informative surgical technique reporting. The items are divided into six sections: background, rationale, and objectives (items 1 to 5); preoperative preparations and requirements (items 6 to 9); surgical technique details (items 10 to 15); postoperative considerations and tasks (items 16 to 19); summary and prospect (items 20 and 21); and other information (item 22). Conclusions: The SUPER reporting guideline has the potential to guide detailed, comprehensive, and transparent surgical technique reporting for surgeons. It may also assist journal editors, peer reviewers, systematic reviewers, and guideline developers in the evaluation of surgical technique papers and help practitioners to better understand and reproduce surgical technique. Trial Registration: https://www.equator-network.org/library/reporting-guidelines-under-development/reporting-guidelines-under-development-for-other-study-designs/#SUPER.

Efficacy of chest X-rays after drain removal in adult and pediatric patients undergoing cardiac and thoracic surgery: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Chest X-rays are routinely obtained after the removal of chest drains in patients undergoing cardiac and thoracic surgical procedures. However, a lack of guidelines and evidence could question the practice. Routine chest X-rays increase exposure to ionizing radiation, increase health-care costs, and lead to overutilisation of available resources. This review aims to explore the evidence in the literature regarding the routine use of chest X-rays following the removal of chest drains. MATERIALS & METHOD: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Medline via Ovid, Cochrane central register of control trials (CENTRAL), and ClinicalTrials. gov without any limit on the publication year. The references of the included studies are manually screened to identify potentially eligible studies. RESULTS: A total of 375 studies were retrieved through the search and 18 studies were included in the review. Incidence of pneumothorax remains less than 10% across adult cardiac, and pediatric cardiac and thoracic surgical populations. The incidence may be as high as 50% in adult thoracic surgical patients. However, the reintervention rate remains less than 2% across the populations. Development of respiratory and cardiovascular symptoms can adequately guide for a chest X-ray following the drain removal. As an alternative, bedside ultrasound can be used to detect pneumothorax in the thorax after the removal of a chest drain without the need for ionizing radiation. CONCLUSION: A routine chest X-ray following chest drain removal in adult and pediatric patients undergoing cardiac and thoracic surgery is not necessary. It can be omitted without compromising patient safety. Obtaining a chest X-ray should be clinically guided. Alternatively, bedside ultrasound can be used for the same purpose without the need for radiation exposure.

Effect of Hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Cardiac Surgery. A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 infections in cardiac surgery patients remains poorly investigated, and current data are limited to small case series with conflicting results. METHODS: A multicenter European collaboration was organized to analyze the outcomes of patients who tested positive with hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 infection after cardiac surgery. The study investigators hypothesized that early infection could be associated with worse postoperative outcomes; hence 2 groups were considered: (1) an early hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 infection group comprising patients who had a positive molecular test result ≤7 days after surgery, with or without symptoms; and (2) a late hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 infection group comprising patients whose test positivity occurred >7 days after surgery, with or without symptoms. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality or morbidity at early follow-up and SARS-CoV-2-related hospital readmission. RESULTS: A total of 87 patients were included in the study. Of those, 30 were in the early group and 57 in the late group. Overall, 30-day mortality was 8%, and in-hospital mortality was 11.5%. The reintubation rate was 11.4%. Early infection was significantly associated with higher mortality (adjusted OR, 26.6; 95% CI, 2, 352.6; P < .01) when compared with the late group. At 6-month follow-up, survival probability was also significantly higher in the late infection group: 91% (95% CI, 83%, 98%) vs 75% (95% CI, 61%, 93%) in the early infection group (P = .036). Two patients experienced COVID-19-related rehospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter analysis, hospital-associated SARS-CoV-2 infection resulted in higher than expected postoperative mortality after cardiac surgery, especially in the early infection group.

Obesity and diabetes are major risk factors for epicardial adipose tissue inflammation.

BACKGROUNDEpicardial adipose tissue (EAT) directly overlies the myocardium, with changes in its morphology and volume associated with myriad cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. However, EAT's immune structure and cellular characterization remain incompletely described. We aimed to define the immune phenotype of EAT in humans and compare such profiles across lean, obese, and diabetic patients.METHODSWe recruited 152 patients undergoing open-chest coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valve repair/replacement (VR) surgery, or combined CABG/VR. Patients' clinical and biochemical data and EAT, subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and preoperative blood samples were collected. Immune cell profiling was evaluated by flow cytometry and complemented by gene expression studies of immune mediators. Bulk RNA-Seq was performed in EAT across metabolic profiles to assess whole-transcriptome changes observed in lean, obese, and diabetic groups.RESULTSFlow cytometry analysis demonstrated EAT was highly enriched in adaptive immune (T and B) cells. Although overweight/obese and diabetic patients had similar EAT cellular profiles to lean control patients, the EAT exhibited significantly (P ≤ 0.01) raised expression of immune mediators, including IL-1, IL-6, TNF-α, and IFN-γ. These changes were not observed in SAT or blood. Neither underlying coronary artery disease nor the presence of hypertension significantly altered the immune profiles observed. Bulk RNA-Seq demonstrated significant alterations in metabolic and inflammatory pathways in the EAT of overweight/obese patients compared with lean controls.CONCLUSIONAdaptive immune cells are the predominant immune cell constituent in human EAT and SAT. The presence of underlying cardiometabolic conditions, specifically obesity and diabetes, rather than cardiac disease phenotype appears to alter the inflammatory profile of EAT. Obese states markedly alter EAT metabolic and inflammatory signaling genes, underlining the impact of obesity on the EAT transcriptome profile.FUNDINGBarts Charity MGU0413, Abbott, Medical Research Council MR/T008059/1, and British Heart Foundation FS/13/49/30421 and PG/16/79/32419.

An unusual cause of heart failure in a young female: a case of massive left atrial mxyoma.

Benign cardiac tumors are rare; they can present with nonspecific symptoms and represent a diagnostic challenge to the clinician. We describe an interesting case of a 26-year-old female who presented with a 6-month history of cough, breathlessness, palpitations, dizziness, and fever. Despite repeated clinical reviews in the community, diagnosis of cardiac tumor was not made until she developed decompensated cardiac failure with bilateral pleural effusions and pulmonary edema. Echocardiogram revealed an enormous left atrial mass that extended one-third into left ventricle during systole. The patient underwent successful surgical resection with histological confirmation of a benign atrial myxoma.

Outcomes of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the early postoperative period following cardiac surgery.

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted patient care across the NHS. Following the suspension of elective surgery, priority was placed in providing urgent and emergency surgery for patients with no alternative treatment. We aim to assess the outcomes of patients undergoing cardiac surgery who have COVID-19 infection diagnosed in the early postoperative period. We identified 9 patients who developed COVID-19 infection following cardiac surgery. These patients had a significant length of hospital stay and extremely poor outcomes with mortality of 44%. In conclusion, the outcome of cardiac surgical patients who contracted COVID-19 infection perioperatively is extremely poor. In order to offer cardiac surgery, units must implement rigorous protocols aimed at maintaining a COVID-19 protective environment to minimize additional life-threatening complications related to this virus infection.

Near real-time bedside detection of spinal cord ischaemia during aortic repair by microdialysis of the cerebrospinal fluid.

OBJECTIVES: Spinal cord ischaemia (SCI) remains the most devastating complication after thoraco-abdominal aortic aneurysm (TAAA) repair. Its early detection is crucial if therapeutic interventions are to be successful. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is readily available and accessible to microdialysis (MD) capable of detecting metabolites involved in SCI [i.e. lactate, pyruvate, the lactate/pyruvate ratio (LPR), glucose and glycerol] in real time. Our aim was to evaluate the feasibility of CSF MD for the real-time detection of SCI metabolites. METHODS: In a combined experimental and translational approach, CSF MD was evaluated (i) in an established experimental large animal model of SCI with 2 arms: (a) after aortic cross-clamping (AXC, N = 4), simulating open TAAA repair and (b) after total segmental artery sacrifice (Th4-L5, N = 8) simulating thoracic endovascular aortic repair. The CSF was analysed utilizing MD every 15 min. Additionally, CSF was collected hourly from 6 patients undergoing open TAAA repair in a high-volume aortic reference centre and analysed using CSF MD. RESULTS: In the experimental AXC group, CSF lactate increased 3-fold after 10 min and 10-fold after 60 min of SCI. Analogously, the LPR increased 5-fold by the end of the main AXC period. Average glucose levels demonstrated a 1.5-fold increase at the end of the first (preconditioning) AXC period (0.60±0.14 vs 0.97±0.32 mmol/l); however, they decreased below (to 1/3 of) baseline levels (0.60±0.14 vs 0.19±0.13 mmol/l) by the end of the experiment (after simulated distal arrest). In the experimental segmental artery sacrifice group, lactate levels doubled and the LPR increased 3.3-fold within 30 min and continued to increase steadily almost 5-fold 180 min after total segmental artery sacrifice (P < 0.05). In patients undergoing TAAA repair, lactate similarly increased 5-fold during ischaemia, reaching a maximum at 6 h postoperatively. In 2 patients with intraoperative SCI, indicated by a decrease in the motor evoked potential of >50%, the LPR increased by 200%. CONCLUSIONS: CSF is widely available during and after TAAA repair, and CSF MD is feasible for detection of early anaerobic metabolites of SCI. CSF MD is a promising new tool combining bedside availability and real-time capacity to potentially enable rapid detection of imminent SCI, thereby maximizing chances to prevent permanent paraplegia in patients with TAAA.

The risk of misdiagnosis in acute thoracic aortic dissection: a review of current guidelines.

Acute aortic syndrome and in particular aortic dissection (AAD) persists as a cause of significant morbidity and mortality despite improvements in surgical management. This clinical review aims to explore the risks of misdiagnosis, outcomes associated with misdiagnosis and evaluate current diagnostic methods for reducing its incidence.Due to the nature of the pathology, misdiagnosing the condition and delaying management can dramatically worsen patient outcomes. Several diagnostic challenges exist, including low prevalence, rapidly propagating pathology, non-discrete symptomatology, non-specific signs, analogy with other acute conditions and lack of management infrastructure. A similarity to acute coronary syndromes is a specific concern and risks patient maltreatment. AAD with malperfusion syndromes are both a cause of misdiagnosis and marker of disease complication, requiring specifically tailored management plans from the emergency setting.Despite improvements in diagnostic measures, including imaging modalities and biomarkers, misdiagnosis of AAD remains commonplace and current guidelines are relatively limited in preventing its occurrence. This paper recommends the early use of AAD risk scoring, focused echocardiography and most importantly, fast-tracking patients to cross-sectional imaging where the suspicion of AAD is high. This has the potential to improve the diagnostic process for AAD and limit the risk of misdiagnosis. However, our understanding remains limited by the lack of large patient datasets and an adequately audited processes of emergency department practice.

Matrix Metalloproteinase in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm and Aortic Dissection.

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) affects 4-5% of men over 65, and Aortic Dissection (AD) is a life-threatening aortic pathology associated with high morbidity and mortality. Initiators of AAA and AD include smoking and arterial hypertension, whilst key pathophysiological features of AAA and AD include chronic inflammation, hypoxia, and large modifications to the extra cellular matrix (ECM). As it stands, only surgical methods are available for preventing aortic rupture in patients, which often presents difficulties for recovery. No pharmacological treatment is available, as such researchers are attempting to understand the cellular and molecular pathophysiology of AAA and AD. Upregulation of matrix metalloproteinase (MMPs), particularly MMP-2 and MMP-9, has been identified as a key event occurring during aneurysmal growth. As such, several animal models of AAA and AD have been used to investigate the therapeutic potential of suppressing MMP-2 and MMP-9 activity as well as modulating the activity of other MMPs, and TIMPs involved in the pathology. Whilst several studies have offered promising results, targeted delivery of MMP inhibition still needs to be developed in order to avoid surgery in high risk patients.

Reflection From UK Aortic Group: Frozen Elephant Trunk Technique as Optimal Solution in Type A Acute Aortic Dissection.

Diseases of the thoracic aorta are increasing in prevalence worldwide. Recent data indicated wide regional variation in the volume and complexity of aortic cases undertaken in United Kingdom cardiac centers, especially in case of acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) conditions. Patients treated in high-volume centers with a specific multidisciplinary aortic program had a significant reduction in ATAAD mortality when compared with low-volume centers. Following the initial phase of a national aortic center reorganization, the current study reflects the initial experience of a national collective of cardiothoracic surgeons with expertise in complex aortic surgery, using frozen elephant trunk as standard technique for the surgical treatment of patients affected by ATAAD. Between June 2013 and October 2017, 66 ATAAD patients (45% women) underwent hybrid aortic arch and frozen elephant trunk repair with the Thoraflex hybrid graft at 8 UK high-volume aortic centers. The in-hospital mortality accounted for 8 patients (12%). Postoperative temporary or permanent neurologic events and temporary renal replacement therapy occurred in 17% and 20% of patients, respectively. No spinal cord injury events were documented. Our data were similar to those reported in literature in the 2 largest experiences with the use of frozen elephant technique in ATAAD condition (in-hospital/30-day mortality: 11-12%). This initial experience demonstrated that frozen elephant technique can potentially be adopted as standard approach in life-threatening aortic diseases, with acceptable complication and mortality rates.

Prothrombin Complex Concentrate in Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prothrombin complex concentrate (PCC) has recently emerged as an effective alternative to fresh frozen plasma (FFP) in treating excessive perioperative bleeding. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the safety and efficacy of PCC administration as first-line treatment for coagulopathy after adult cardiac surgery. METHODS: PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to the end of March 2018 to identify eligible articles. Adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery and receiving perioperative PCC were compared with patients receiving FFP. RESULTS: A total of 861 adult patients from four studies were retrieved. No randomized studies were identified. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) showed that the PCC cohort was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of RBC transfusion (OR, 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45 to 3.40) and units of RBC received (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.90). No differences were observed between the groups for reexploration for bleeding (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.82), chest drain output at 24 hours (OR, 66.36; 95% CI, -82.40 to 216.11), hospital mortality (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.49), stroke (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.41 to 1.56), and occurrence of acute kidney injury (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.58 to 1.12). A trend toward increased risk of renal replacement therapy was observed in the PCC group (OR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.16 to 1.02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with significant bleeding after cardiac surgery, PCC administration seems to be more effective than FFP in reducing perioperative blood transfusions. No additional risks of thromboembolic events or other adverse reactions were observed. Randomized controlled trials are needed to establish the safety of PCC in cardiac surgery definitively.

Secondary Open Aortic Procedure Following Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair: Meta-Analytic State of the Art.

BACKGROUND: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair is characterized by a substantial need for reintervention. Secondary open aortic procedure becomes necessary when further endoluminal options are exhausted. This synopsis and quantitative analysis of available evidence aims to overcome the limitations of institutional cohort reports on secondary open aortic procedure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Electronic databases were searched from 1994 to the present date with a prospectively registered protocol. Pooled quantification of pre/intraoperative variables, and proportional meta-analysis with random effect model of early and midterm outcomes were performed. Subgroup analysis was conducted for patients who had early mortality. Fifteen studies were elected for final analysis, encompassing 330 patients. The following values are expressed as "pooled mean, 95% confidence interval." Type B dissection was the most common pathology at index thoracic endovascular aortic repair (51.2%, 44.4-57.9). The most frequent indication for secondary open aortic procedure was endoleak (39.7%, 34.6-45.1). More than half of patients had surgery on the descending aorta (51.2%, 45.8-56.6), and one fourth on the arch (25.2%, 20.8-30.1). Operative mortality was 10.6% (7.4-14.9). Neurological morbidity was substantial between stroke (5.1%, 2.8-9.1) and paraplegia (8.3%, 5.2-13.1). At 2-year follow-up, mortality (20.4%, 11.5-33.5) and aortic adverse event (aortic death 7.7%, 4.3-13.3, tertiary aortic open procedure 7.4%, 4.0-13.2) were not negligible. CONCLUSIONS: In the secondary open aortic procedure population, type B dissection was both the most common pathology and the one associated with the lowest early mortality, whereas aortic infection and extra-anatomical bypass were associated with the most ominous prognosis.

Unwarranted Variation in the Quality of Care for Patients With Diseases of the Thoracic Aorta.

BACKGROUND: Thoracic aortic disease has a high mortality. We sought to establish the contribution of unwarranted variation in care to regional differences in outcomes observed in patients with thoracic aortic disease in England. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit (NACSA) were extracted. A parallel systematic review/meta-analysis through December 2015, and structure and process questionnaire of English cardiac surgery units were also accomplished. Treatment and mortality rates were investigated. A total of 24 548 adult patients in the HES study, 8058 in the NACSA study, and 103 543 from a total of 33 studies in the systematic review were obtained. Treatment rates for thoracic aortic disease within 6 months of index admission ranged from 7.6% to 31.5% between English counties. Risk-adjusted 6-month mortality in untreated patients ranged from 19.4% to 36.3%. Regional variation persisted after adjustment for disease or patient factors. Regional cardiac units with higher case volumes treated more-complex patients and had significantly lower risk-adjusted mortality relative to low-volume units. The results of the systematic review indicated that the delivery of care by multidisciplinary teams in high-volume units resulted in better outcomes. The observational analyses and the online survey indicated that this is not how services are configured in most units in England. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in the organization of services that address unwarranted variation in the provision of care for patients with thoracic aortic disease in England may result in more-equitable access to treatment and improved outcomes.

Repair of type A dissection-benefits of dissection rota.

BACKGROUND: Acute type A aortic dissection repair is a surgical emergency associated with high mortality. In 2007, Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital was the first institution in the United Kingdom to implement a thoracic aortic on-call dissection rota. We set out to investigate whether the dissection rota improved hospital quality outcomes and long-term survival. METHODS: Data from a prospectively collected database was analysed following case note validation. Two hundred patients underwent acute type A aortic dissection repair between October 1998 and November 2015. To assess the effect of the post-dissection rota on operative and postoperative outcomes, propensity matching of pre- and post-dissection rota patients was used. RESULTS: Eighty patients were identified from the pre-dissection rota era and 120 from the post-dissection rota era. Sixty patients from each era were then propensity matched. Comparative analyses showed that patients who underwent acute type A dissection repair in the post-dissection rota period were less likely to suffer in-hospital mortality in both the matched and unmatched groups (30% vs. 13.3%; P=0.004 and 28.3% vs. 11.7%; P=0.055, respectively). A similar improvement was shown in acute renal failure (26.3% vs. 14.2%; P=0.033 and 31.7% vs. 15.0%; P=0.044, respectively). However, cardiopulmonary bypass times and aortic cross clamp times were still significantly longer in the matched post-dissection rota cohort. There was a significant improvement in 5-year survival for the pre- and post-dissection rota in both the matched and unmatched patients (P=0.004 and P=0.034). CONCLUSIONS: Reorganization of surgical expertise, activity and implementation of a dissection rota within our hospital have resulted in lower in-hospital mortality and better survival outcomes in this group of patients.

Development and Validation of Elective and Nonelective Risk Prediction Models for In-Hospital Mortality in Proximal Aortic Surgery Using the National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research (NICOR) Database.

BACKGROUND: To facilitate patient choice and the risk adjustment of consultant outcomes in aortic operations, reliable predictive tools are required. Our objective was to develop a risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality after operation on the proximal aorta. METHODS: Data for 8641 consecutive UK patients undergoing proximal aortic operation from the National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research database from April 2007 to March 2013 were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 4.6% in elective operations and 16.5% in nonelective operations. In the elective model, previous cardiac operation (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0 to 4.7) and ejection fraction greater than 30% (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.7 to 3.1) were the strongest predictors of mortality (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.805 (95% CI: 0.802 to 0.807) with a bias-corrected value of 0.795. Model calibration was acceptable (p = 0.427) on the basis of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. In the nonelective model, salvage operations (adjusted OR 9.9, 95% CI: 6.5 to 15.2) and previous cardiac operation (adjusted OF 3.9, 95% CI: 3.0 to 5.0) were the strongest predictors of mortality (p < 0.001). The AUROC curve was 0.761 (95% CI: 0.761 to 0.765) with a bias-corrected value of 0.756, and model calibration was also found to be acceptable (p = 0.616). CONCLUSIONS: We propose the use of these risk models to improve patient choice and to enhance patients' awareness of risks and risk-adjust aortic operation outcomes for case-mix.